Math-based clinical decision making (Benson & Barnes, 2022)

Purpose: The goal of this clinical focus article was to explore the utility of a mathematical prediction model (Bayes’ theorem) in dysphagia management.

Conclusions: Bayes’ theorem shows promise as a means of incorporating evidence-based care into individual patient consultations by predicting both the risk of pneumonia and the impact of speech-language pathology and care team interventions on that risk. However, more research is needed on risk factors for pneumonia and the prevalence of pneumonia before the model can be accurately applied to clinical decision-making for patients with dysphagia.

Supplemental Material S1. For clinicians interested in further exploration of Bayes Theorem in this context the following formulae are provided.

Benson, D., & Barnes, G. (2022). To thicken or not to thicken: Exploring the use of math-based clinical decision making. Perspectives of the ASHA Special Interest Groups. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1044/2022_PERSP-20-00190